內容簡介
內容簡介 「戰後的每一次經濟蕭條，都從美國衰退而起，但下一回，應該導因於中國停滯，因為這個國家正面臨負債的詛咒。」 －－摩根史坦利首席全球規劃師、《國家興衰》作者／魯秋爾．夏馬作者迪尼‧麥馬洪是《華爾街日報》與《道瓊新聞服務》的澳洲記者，父母的一句「學中文能幫你找到工作」、「中國經濟的快速發展對澳洲有利」，讓他17歲就遠離家鄉踏上中國，自此長住超過13年。這幾年，他見證中國經濟的快速轉型，但也發現，這龐大的經濟體開始失調，原因是，負債的速度增長太快、過高。2008年，中國的債務總額佔GDP的1.6倍，但不到十年，此數字已高達2.6倍。而且是史上最快。特別是地方政府借款和國營企業負債，將是中國的兩大罩門。這些負債，怎麼變出來的？誰准許的？中國也將發生次貸危機？當局怎麼處理？麥馬洪走訪中國各大城市，第一手報導官方不會告訴你的真相。◎黑箱與「殭屍」企業孵化器：西方自由市場有隻看不見的手，中國國營事業卻有個「閒不住的手」，當這隻手累積過度權力，就產生占國家整體60％以上的高額負債。當這些國企的營收不足以還債時，就變成不能死但也活不了的「殭屍企業」。作者走訪擁有世界最大高壓鑄造機的四川二重集團，揭開國營殭屍的祕密。◎鬼城？誰能讓空城住滿人？最好有這麼多郭台銘投資中國人口13億，城郊的新城與新區卻可容納34億人住，這讓全國沒人住的鬼城超過50座。沒人住為何還要拚命蓋？因為地方政府可以用都市更新，公共建設之名超額借貸。但這些被有錢人「綁架」的住宅區，無殼族還是買不起。◎中國金融，影子面積越來越大 「為民服務」？中國銀行體系才不，正規銀行不准做的生意，就丟給影子銀行，2014年，影子銀行創造的貸款占GDP的40％，到2016年還翻倍； 不然，你以為中國有錢人哪來這麼多錢？中國式量化寬鬆規模到底有多嚇人？讓習近平有打不完的老虎與蒼蠅。北京當局知道中國經濟的泡沫化走勢後，集大權於一身的習近平主席的對策是？作者花了超過十年時間，走遍中國一直想搞懂：這個債務槓桿過高、明明會失敗卻一直很成功的荒謬經濟體，到底能例外到什麼時候？他的結論是：「危機總是比我們所有人想的來得晚，但速度永遠比我們以為的快。」中國不會崩潰、不會動盪，但光是「停滯」，全世界就受不了。本書介出自大是出版《中國奇蹟的句點》'One of the clearest and most thorough statements of an argument often made about the country: that its government has relied on constant stimulus to keep growth strong, an addiction that is bound to backfire. Second, he comes closer than any previous writer to covering the Chinese economy as Michael Lewis, the hugely popular author of The Big Short, might do. His analysis is informed but accessible, animated by anecdotes and characters, some colourful, some verging on tragic . . . McMahon is among the most compelling of the many analysts who conclude that China's economic miracle will end painfully' The EconomistThe world has long considered China a juggernaut of economic strength, but since the global financial crisis, the country's economy has ballooned in size, complexity, and risk. Once dominated by four state-owned banks, the nation's financial system is a tangle of shadow banking entities, informal financial institutions, and complex corporate funding arrangements that threaten growth, stability, and reform efforts. The country has accumulated so much debt so quickly that economists increasingly predict a financial crisis that could make 'Brexit' or Greece's economic ruin seem minor, and could undermine China's ascent as a superpower. Earlier this year, President Xi Jinping issued an urgent call for reform that gives the country until 2020 to transform its economy - a vaguely-defined objective that most economists agree is unrealistic. Whether or not China will be responsible for the next global recession, as some experts forecast, the fate of its economy will have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world. Yet the inner workings of China's financial system are still very much a mystery to most outsiders. Now more than ever, as the country's slowing economy is being felt around the globe, it is essential to understand how China allowed its economy to become so mired in debt.China's Great Wall of Debt is a penetrating examination of the country's opaque financial system and the complex factors - demographic shifts; urbanization; industrialization; a pervasive over-reliance on debt-fueled investments - that have brought the country to the brink of crisis. Anchored by stories of China's cities and its people; from factory workers and displaced farmers to government officials and entrepreneurs, the narrative will take readers inside the country's ghost cities, zombie companies, start-ups, and regulatory institutions as McMahon explains how things got so bad, why fixing the problems is so hard, and what the economic outlook means for China and for the rest of us.
