內容簡介
內容簡介 為什麼有人的預測能力就是這麼強？預測能力有辦法藉由後天習得嗎？第一本提供有效方式、改善預測未來的能力的書！世界知名社會科學家、美國賓州大學華頓商學院教授Philip E. Tetlock在本書中，探討人類的思考習慣如何促成最佳預測結果！「Philip Tetlock是這項重要主題的世界專家。Superforecasting是一個關於他和他的研究團隊如何在嚴肅的比賽中，讓平凡人贏過專家的精采故事。此書也是一本教人如何在不確定的世界裡，清晰思考的指南。快去讀這本書。」—— Daniel Kahneman，諾貝爾獎得主、《快思慢想》作者作者提到，2005年一項具指標性的調查指出，連預測專家的預測也只比亂猜好一點。然而，有一個重要結論並沒有受到應有的重視：有一些專家的確具有先見之明，而Tedlock在過去的10年間一直嘗試解開這個謎。在本書中，Tedlock與共同作者Dan Gardner在數十年的研究 “The Good Judgment Project” 及由政府補助的大型預測比賽中，徵募了成千上萬的平凡人參加，其中包括電影導演、退休管路安裝工人、前國標舞舞者，讓他們預測國際事件。驚人的是，有一些參與者的預測結果出奇的突出，打敗其他的預測基準、預測市場，甚至贏過能取得機密資訊的情報分析師的共同判斷。他們，是「超級預測員」。在這本開創先鋒且簡單明瞭的書中，作者教導讀者如何從這些「超級預測員」身上學習。他們提出諸多成功預測的案例，採訪許多高階決策員，包括美國前中央情報局局長David Petraeus與前美國財政部長Robert Rubin，告訴讀者，做出好的預測不一定需要依靠超級電腦或秘訣。重點在於，如何從各種資源中擷取證據、用概率統計方式思考、以團隊為單位運作、記分、以及願意承認錯誤並改正。想改善慘不忍睹的預測能力嗎？現在就快來閱讀Superforecasting，讓成為預測高手不再遙不可及！What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
