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How Big Things Get Done

內容簡介

內容簡介 牛津大學經濟學教授Bent Flyvbjerg傳授成功推動大型開發案的關鍵七心法實現遠大的願景鼓舞人心！Apple的iPod在11個月內從小型計畫發展為偉大商品，反觀倫敦Crossrail項目延遲了五年還超出預算數十億美元才完成，反思我們生活中的創業、開會或準時完成工作也常常經歷失敗，為什麼？研究成功與失敗的區別是牛津大學教授Bent Flyvbjerg 畢生的工作，本書歸納出計畫的失敗原因以及成功原則，搭配生動的例子，從雪梨歌劇院的建造到皮克斯最新動畫的製作，讓讀者更了解如何準時又不超出預算完成大型專案。 The secrets to successfully planning and delivering projects on any scale—from home renovation to space exploration—by the world’s leading expert on megaprojects “This book is important, timely, instructive, and entertaining. What more could you ask for?”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize–winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow “Over-budget and over-schedule is an inevitability. Incompetence and grift is outrageous. Bent Flyvbjerg, with this terrific data-driven book, has shown that there is another way.”—Frank GehryNothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how the Empire State Building went from a sketch to the jewel of New York’s skyline in twenty-one months, or how Apple’s iPod went from a project with a single employee to a product launch in eleven months.These are wonderful stories. But most of the time big visions turn into nightmares. Remember Boston’s “Big Dig”? Almost every sizeable city in the world has such a fiasco in its backyard. In fact, no less than 92% of megaprojects come in over budget or over schedule, or both. The cost of California’s high-speed rail project soared from $33 billion to $100 billon—and won’t even go where promised. More modest endeavors, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why?Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life’s work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg, dubbed “the world’s leading megaproject expert.” In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors in judgment and decision-making that lead projects, both big and small, to fail, and the research-based principles that will make you succeed with yours. For example:• Understand your odds. If you don’t know them, you won’t win.• Plan slow, act fast. Getting to the action quick feels right. But it’s wrong. • Think right to left. Start with your goal, then identify the steps to get there.• Find your Lego. Big is best built from small.• Be a team maker. You won’t succeed without an “us.”• Master the unknown unknowns. Most think they can’t, so they fail. Flyvbjerg shows how you can.• Know that your biggest risk is you.Full of vivid examples ranging from the building of the Sydney Opera House, to the making of the latest Pixar blockbusters, to a home renovation in Brooklyn gone awry, How Big Things Get Done reveals how to get any ambitious project done—on time and on budget."

作者介紹

作者介紹 Bent Flyvbjerg is the first BT Professor at Oxford University and the VKR Professor at the IT University of Copenhagen, an economist, and ""the world's leading megaproject expert,"" according to global accounting network KPMG. He has consulted on over one hundred projects costing $1 billion or more and has been knighted by the Queen of Denmark. Dan Gardner is a journalist and the New York Times bestselling author of Risk, Future Babble, and co-author of Superforecasting (with Philip E. Tetlock).

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