How Spies Think: 10 Lessons in Intelligence | 誠品線上

頂尖情報員的高效判讀術: 立辨真偽、快速反應、精準決策的10個技巧

內容簡介

內容簡介 結合真實案例經驗與學術智慧，用情報員的方式分辨真偽、果斷決策！情報員最重要的職責就是分辨情報的真偽，藉此預測最精確的世界局勢與決定行動。在當今假資料橫行的數位年代，我們天天被許多矛盾、不完整的資訊轟炸，面對的挑戰及做決定的困難程度，已不亞於掌握國家安危的政府機構。我們需要更有效的方式來提昇決策品質。本書運用情報單位和學術機構最前沿的知識與技術，向讀者解說如何應用情報員的思考方法與SEES分析模型：Ｓ：狀況認知──知悉周遭所發生的事情，觀察自己所面對的情勢。Ｅ：解釋──分析我們為何觀察到這些事情，涉事人士有何動機。Ｅ：評估──預測在各種假設下，事件會如何發展。Ｓ：戰略性關注──瞭解有可能對我們造成長期挑戰的未來議題。本書並以911事件、美國2016年總統大選疑雲、伊拉克戰爭、福克蘭群島戰爭、五眼聯盟……等真實案例解釋SEES分析模型、交叉檢驗與運用之道，讓我們能不受他人影響，在不完整的資料中取得對情況的察知，在侷限和偏見中進行評估，並且更妥善地掌握意外元素。如果我們能夠應用情報機關的思考方式分辨真偽，我們可以具備更高的分析能力和敏銳度，以清晰頭腦分辨真假資訊，便可讓我們在人生大事上做出果斷英明的決定。本書是你在情報迷宮中判讀實情、精確評估、擬定對策的最佳指南!本中文書介出自《頂尖情報員的高效判讀術: 立辨真偽、快速反應、精準決策的10個技巧》商周出版出版From the former director of GCHQ, learn the methodology used by the British intelligence agencies to reach judgments, establish the right level of confidence and act decisively.Intelligence officers discern the truth. They gather information - often contradictory or incomplete - and, with it, they build the most accurate possible image of the world. With the stakes at their absolute highest, they must then decide what to do.In everyday life, you are faced with contradictory, incomplete information, too. Reading the news on social media, figuring out the next step in your career, or trying to discover if gossip about a friend is legitimate, you are building an image of the world and making decisions about it.Looking through the eyes of one of Britain's most senior ex-intelligence officers, Professor Sir David Omand, How Spies Think shows how the big decisions in your life will be easier to make when you apply the same frameworks used by British intelligence. Full of revealing examples from his storied career, including key briefings with Prime Ministers from Thatcher to Blair, and conflicts from the Falklands to Afghanistan, Professor Omand arms us with the tools to sort fact from fiction, and shows us how to use real intelligence every day."

作者介紹

作者介紹 David Omand was the first UK Security and Intelligence Coordinator, responsible to the Prime Minister for the professional health of the intelligence community, national counter-terrorism strategy and ""homeland security"". He served for seven years on the Joint Intelligence Committee. He was Permanent Secretary of the Home Office from 1997 to 2000, and before that Director of GCHQ.

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