The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China | 誠品線上

The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China

內容簡介

內容簡介 隨著中美角力持續升溫，「中美終須一戰」已成主流論點，再觸即發的戰事，是否有轉圜餘地？外交官出身的澳洲前總理，同時也是資深中國事務專家陸克文將以其多年來對區域政治的研究與涉外實務經驗，對中美問題提出其獨到的見解，力陳中美戰事發生仍能透過梳理雙方對過去的歧見與共築對未來的遠景來避免。澳洲前總理暨世界知名中國問題專家陸克文總結自身豐富的區域政治、涉外實務經驗對中美兩強爭鋒情勢提出的權威「解套白皮書」－探索全球最重要也最混亂的國際關係－－認識中美競爭最淺顯易懂的入門讀物－中美間的戰爭將是災難性的、致命的和破壞性的。不幸的是，這不再是無可想像的。作為全球兩大超級強國，中美之間的關係是特別不穩定的。它建立在一個文化誤解、歷史怨恨及意識形態不相容的地震斷層上。沒有其他國家能和中美一樣，如此迅速地冒犯和被冒犯；他們的軍隊進行著危險的膽小鬼賽局（the game of chicken），企業竊取智慧財產權、政府透過情報衛星窺視……兩者逐日增長自身越過致命界限的能力。澳洲前總理陸克文（Kevin Rudd）研究中國的政治、經濟與社會生活逾四十年，他是能夠真正洞察領導層心態的極少數人之一，他們的判斷將決定戰鼓是否會被敲響。《可避免的戰爭》一書揭開中美雙方行動的神秘面紗，並對其進行了翻譯與解釋，提供包括雙方在內的全球各國兩強相爭的解套方案。陸克文於本書中指出，地緣政治災難仍可避免，但前提是這兩位巨人能夠通過所謂「有管理的戰略競爭」（managed strategic competition），找到一種不背叛其核心利益的共存方式。如果他們失敗了，在這條道路上就有可能發生戰爭，從而改寫兩國與世界的未來。本中文書介出自《可避免的戰爭: 美國與習近平治理下的中國》遠見天下文化出版股份有限公司出版From a veteran diplomat and prime minster at the heart of the Western alliance, and a deeply knowledgeable China watcher, a way forward for the US and China to avoid a superpower conflict, and a chilling vision of what that might look like if it was unleashed.The Avoidable War confronts the growing sense that the US-China relationship is beginning to hurtle out of control. Nationalists have gained ground in the politics of both capitals. So-called "realists " are in control of their respective national security policy agendas. "Liberal internationalists ", let alone "multilateralists ", are written off. And the United States has now formally concluded that forty years of "strategic engagement " between China and the United States has now come to an end, and ended in failure, and that we have now entered into a new era of "strategic competition ". There are no rules on this new road. A broad economic, cyber and high technology war, and perhaps a broader economic decoupling, is likely to become a continuing reality. As is the widening gulf in the foreign policy, national security policy and international economic policy perceptions and practice of both. We are not yet at crisis point. But we seem to be headed relentlessly in that direction.The purpose of this book is to challenge those politicians, strategists and generals on both sides as they happily embark on the slippery slope of decoupling, containment, confrontation, conflict and Cold War. Even the unthinkable: war itself.Instead Rudd focuses of the pursuit of a common strategic narrative for the future that might still be sufficiently acceptable to both sides, an understanding of the past and a vision of the future that might just reduce the risk of catastrophe."

作者介紹

作者介紹 Kevin RuddKevin Rudd is president and CEO of Asia Society and has been president of the Asia Society Policy Institute since January 2015. He served as Australia's 26th Prime Minister from 2007 to 2010, then as Foreign Minister from 2010 to 2012, before returning as Prime Minister in 2013. Rudd graduated from the Australian National University with honors in Chinese studies, and is fluent in Mandarin. He also studied at the National Taiwan Normal University in Taipei.

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